What’s more, prices for all grades of paper fell sharply in 2008 at the start of the financial turmoil. Although in mid-2009 prices returned to their five-year averages, they remain significantly lower than their mid-2008 peaks. “Prices are extremely volatile now,” confirms Andrew Perkins, head of recycling at Aylesford Newsprint, one of the UK’s three newsprint paper mills: “I would expect them to remain volatile until the autumn.” 

It’s difficult, yet critical, to determine how much of the decline in paper demand reflects cyclical trends and how much long-term change. “As the economy recovers we will see an increase in paper consumption and hence more in the waste stream to recycle. There is however an undeniable trend towards electronic forms of communication,” Perkins reports. “There is certainly a structural change afoot.”

The UK paper industry’s situation is further complicated by its rather unique position regarding imports and exports. Because of diminishing UK manufacturing infrastructure, yearly imports in finished paper and board products like books, magazines, greeting cards and packaging exceed exports and add 1.1 million tonnes to that recoverable from the UK waste stream, according to the Confederation of Paper Industries. 

Consequently, the UK cannot utilise more than 46 per cent of the paper and card collected. The stability of the UK recovered paper market is therefore heavily reliant on the international export market. Significant end-markets are India, Indonesia and especially China, which absorbs 80 per cent of excess Old Corrugated Casing (OCC) recovered paper.

This dependence renders the UK paper industry vulnerable, as several factors must remain favourable for continued stability: overseas markets must continue to expand; markets have to continue being based on recovered paper; shipping costs need to remain economic; and the price and quality of UK paper must remain competitive. Perhaps of most concern is this final issue of quality. China in particular increasingly rejects what it deems to be low-quality loads, which render paper making at the mill more time and cost intensive, and significantly exacerbate carbon and waste output. Unless collection methods ensure the UK’s export rate isn’t compromised, insufficient reprocessing capacity could lead to landfilling of the commodity. 

Across the Pond, concerns have arisen over the impact falling paper recovery could have on general attitudes towards recycling. David Refkin, President of GreenPath Sustainability Consultants and former president of the National Recycling Coalition, says paper is the bedrock of kerbside recycling in the US: “If people don’t have newspapers to throw out, are they going to be that willing to put out their bottles and cans and other recyclables? The waste recovery companies are very worried about this problem. The whole infrastructure around recycling could collapse, or at least shrink.”

Whether this trend could eventually migrate across the Atlantic remains to be seen, but for now, the UK’s reprocessing capacity remains globally competitive. Indeed, due to declining consumption and rumoured domestic capacity increases, the UK newsprint sector at least could be self-sufficient within the next five years, according to the WRAP Paper Market Situation Report.

The decrease in consumption doesn’t signal the eventual demise of the UK recovered paper industry, though. As Perkins notes: “Paper consumption is on a downward trend, so inevitably there will be less material to be recovered. Paper is nevertheless an amazingly flexible and sustainable product. It will be around for a long time yet.” 

Thanks to a sophisticated reprocessing infrastructure, the paper industry is the country’s most prolific recycler. But is the rise of electronic communication, coupled with our import/export ratio, threatening the strength of the UK recovered paper market?

With digital communications increasingly prevalent, it comes as no surprise that paper consumption is diminishing. Until recently, the paper industry witnessed only an incremental decline in paper-based communications as they were complemented rather than replaced by electronic formats. The recession has accelerated the trend, however, and last year saw paper use drop by nearly 10 per cent. 

What’s more, prices for all grades of paper fell sharply in 2008 at the start of the financial turmoil. Although in mid-2009 prices returned to their five-year averages, they remain significantly lower than their mid-2008 peaks. “Prices are extremely volatile now,” confirms Andrew Perkins, head of recycling at Aylesford Newsprint, one of the UK’s three newsprint paper mills: “I would expect them to remain volatile until the autumn.” 

It’s difficult, yet critical, to determine how much of the decline in paper demand reflects cyclical trends and how much long-term change. “As the economy recovers we will see an increase in paper consumption and hence more in the waste stream to recycle. There is however an undeniable trend towards electronic forms of communication,” Perkins reports. “There is certainly a structural change afoot.”

The UK paper industry’s situation is further complicated by its rather unique position regarding imports and exports. Because of diminishing UK manufacturing infrastructure, yearly imports in finished paper and board products like books, magazines, greeting cards and packaging exceed exports and add 1.1 million tonnes to that recoverable from the UK waste stream, according to the Confederation of Paper Industries. 

Consequently, the UK cannot utilise more than 46 per cent of the paper and card collected. The stability of the UK recovered paper market is therefore heavily reliant on the international export market. Significant end-markets are India, Indonesia and especially China, which absorbs 80 per cent of excess Old Corrugated Casing (OCC) recovered paper.

This dependence renders the UK paper industry vulnerable, as several factors must remain favourable for continued stability: overseas markets must continue to expand; markets have to continue being based on recovered paper; shipping costs need to remain economic; and the price and quality of UK paper must remain competitive. Perhaps of most concern is this final issue of quality. China in particular increasingly rejects what it deems to be low-quality loads, which render paper making at the mill more time and cost intensive, and significantly exacerbate carbon and waste output. Unless collection methods ensure the UK’s export rate isn’t compromised, insufficient reprocessing capacity could lead to landfilling of the commodity. 

Across the Pond, concerns have arisen over the impact falling paper recovery could have on general attitudes towards recycling. David Refkin, President of GreenPath Sustainability Consultants and former president of the National Recycling Coalition, says paper is the bedrock of kerbside recycling in the US: “If people don’t have newspapers to throw out, are they going to be that willing to put out their bottles and cans and other recyclables? The waste recovery companies are very worried about this problem. The whole infrastructure around recycling could collapse, or at least shrink.”

Whether this trend could eventually migrate across the Atlantic remains to be seen, but for now, the UK’s reprocessing capacity remains globally competitive. Indeed, due to declining consumption and rumoured domestic capacity increases, the UK newsprint sector at least could be self-sufficient within the next five years, according to the WRAP Paper Market Situation Report.

The decrease in consumption doesn’t signal the eventual demise of the UK recovered paper industry, though. As Perkins notes: “Paper consumption is on a downward trend, so inevitably there will be less material to be recovered. Paper is nevertheless an amazingly flexible and sustainable product. It will be around for a long time yet.”